- By Soumyaroop Mukherjee
- Mon, 13 Oct 2025 06:19 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
Bihar Elections: The political chessboard of the state is taking shape as the assembly elections draw nearer. While the traditional heavyweights, BJP, JDU and RJD have been busy pulling their political clout and chalking out seat arithmetic, a new force has emerged in the political geography of Bihar in the form of AIMIM.
Reaching out to the minority community in the poll-bound state, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi recently said, "Yadav, Paswan, Thakur- every community has its own leader, but the 19 per cent Muslims in Bihar have no leader." As per the 2022 Bihar Caste survey report, Muslims make up 17.7 per cent of Bihar’s total population of about 13 crore.
As the poll heats up, Owaisi has launched scathing criticism of both the NDA and the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan. He has also hit out against the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral roll carried out by the Election Commission.
But can this lone cry of AIMIM turn into the winning bugle for the party, which made significant progress in the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls with victory in five seats?
Mithilanchal Muslim Arithmetic
This time, the AIMIM seems to go a notch up in its political aspirations as Owaisi announced that the party has decided to field candidates in the Mithilanchal region. This will be the first time in Darbhanga district that Owaisi's candidates will go to voters seeking votes.
According to a report by Jagran.com, the AIMIM can field candidates from Keoti, Jale, and Gaurabauram Assembly constituencies. Jale and Keoti have 50,000 minority votes each, while Gaurabauram has 40,000 votes, making AIMIM a potential candidate in the region.
This will not be the first time that Owaisi will be fielding candidates in the region. During the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, Owaisi had fielded his candidate in the Madhubani Lok Sabha Constituency (which comprises the Jale and Keoti assembly constituencies).
Although Owaisi’s candidate did not carry out an intensive campaign in that election, the party’s kite symbol managed to soar in the Muslim villages of Jale and Kewati, as well as throughout the Jale Assembly segment. The symbol of the Majlis has now become easily recognisable to ordinary voters.
Banking on this popularity, the Majlis has decided to expand its political sphere to reach out to the voters of the Gaurabauram to vote for their ‘Kite’ symbol.
The Seemanchal Seats
The border region comprising the districts of Araria, Katihar, Kishanganj and Purnia could yet again turn out to be the trump card for the AIMIM. All the areas in the Seemanchal region comprise dense Muslim populations, with Kishanganj (68 per cent) followed by Katihar (44 per cent), Araria (43 per cent) and Purnia (38 per cent). Together, the four districts have 24 Assembly seats.
In the 2020 Assembly Elections, the AIMIM surprised everyone by winning five seats in the region:
Amour: Akhtarul Iman
Bahadurganj: Mohammad Anzar Nayeemi
Jokihat: Shahnawaz Alam
Kochadhaman: Muhammad Izhar Asfi
Thakurganj: Saud Alam
Later, four of its five MLAs switched to the RJD, leaving just one seat with AIMIM. Besides AIMIM, the BJP won eight seats in the region while its ally JDU secured four. The Congress finished with five and CPI(ML) and RJD with one seat each.
How Will This Impact RJD?
Muslims have been a vital part of the MY Axis (Muslim-Yadav) for the RJD. This is one of the major reasons why Tejashwi Yadav is not willing to accommodate AIMIM within the ranks of Mahagathbandhan ahead of the polls.
According to a CSDS post-poll survey, 76 per cent of Muslim voters voted for the Grand Alliance last time while 11 per cent voted for Owaisi's alliance. If more votes are lost from this 76 per cent, it will pose a challenge for the Mahagathbandhan, considering this may lead to erosion of its key support base.