BJP Suffered Major Loss Of 63 Seats Even As Its Vote Share Saw Tiny Dip Of 0.7%, Here’s How Seat-Vote Share Math Works

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major setback after its tally dropped by 63, from 303 to 240, in the Lok Sabha election 2024. The saffron party saw this mammoth damage in the number of seats even as its vote percentage dropped merely by 0.7 per cent.

Contrary to this, the Congress party added 47 seats to its kitty, taking its count from 52 in 2019 to 99 in 2024. The grand old party saw this by a 1.7 per cent surge in its national vote share.

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How Can Such Small Shift In Vote Share Bring Such Big Change:

A surge in vote percentage doesn’t necessarily mean it will directly change the number of seats. When it comes to national elections, the overall vote share doesn't always match the number of seats won. This is because the vote share is a total of all the votes from every state, but winning seats depends on the specific results in each state.

In some states, a party might start with very few votes. Gaining more votes in these states can increase their overall vote share, but not enough to actually win any seats there. In other states, the competition is much closer. Even a small loss in votes in these states can result in losing seats.
The testimony to the aforementioned situation was seen in the Punjab in Tamil Nadu this time.

The BJP rose from 3.6 per cent to 11.2 per cent this time but failed to amass even a single seat in Tamil Nadu. Similarly, the saffron party went from 9.6 per cent to 18.6 per cent in Punjab but drew a blank in terms of seats won.

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A probable ally, like Shiromani Akali Dal, would have perhaps brought a few seats for the BJP. Even as its vote share surged in Punjab, it lost two seats it had won in 2019.