- By Kamal Kumar
- Wed, 20 Dec 2023 04:22 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
Year Ender - Assembly Polls 2023: It was a decade ago, in 2013, when one of the senior leaders of Congress, Jairam Ramesh, hurled insulting slurs at Narendra Modi, the erstwhile CM of Gujarat and the Prime Minister now. Ramesh, a Union Minister in the second term of the grand old party, was probably high on power when he called Modi 'Bhashmasur', a mythical character in Hindu scriptures who could kill anyone by just putting his hands on their head.
Ramesh would have never thought that a day would come, just a decade later, when Congress would be a mere shadow of its glorious past. Today, in December 2023, Congress is limited to three states, whereas the BJP has 12 under its hood, with four more as a coalition partner. Assembly polls in 2023 paint an even gloomier picture for the prospects of the Mallikarjun Kharge-led party. In the recently held state assembly polls, the party lost two states - Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan - to the saffron party. Moreover, it could not make a comeback in Madhya Pradesh, despite murmurs of anti-incumbency against the Shivraj Singh Chauhan-led government.
Poll pundits suggest that it was the 'Modi Magic' which helped BJP sail towards resounding victories in each of these states and opened an important portal in South India with 8 assembly seats in its kitty in Telangana.
The Last Five Bastions
On December 3, counting was held for five states which went to polls in the last quarter of 2023. The results established an authority of the saffron side in the Hindi heartland as it retained Madhya Pradesh while seizing the Congress bastions of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In Telangana, Congress managed to oust incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi - a national version of KCR's Telangana Rashtra Samithi. An ex-IPS-led Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) defeated the BJP's ally Mizo National Front (MNF) in Mizoram.
The Number Game
Out of 90 seats in Chhattisgarh, BJP won a clear majority with 54 in its kitty, whereas, Congress slipped from 68 in 2018 to 35. Only 1 seat went to an independent candidate. In terms of vote percentage share, the winning side clocked over 46 per cent of votes, whereas, Congress despite a slight decrease of 0.13 per cent votes, lost the power. Even though the Congress maintained its overall backing, the BJP secured votes in both the northern and southern regions of the State, thus usurping the seat of power in the Naxal-affected state.
Rajasthan assembly polls also threw up some interesting results, with the ruling Congress falling from 100 to 69. And, BJP which banked solely on the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, amid infighting within various factions, won 115 seats, up from 73 in 2018. However, BJP gained a 41.69 per cent vote share, whereas, Congress remained a little less on 39.53 per cent of vote share.
The people of Madhya Pradesh repeated their faith in the saffron side, which swept 163 seats under its hood with a vote share of 48.55 per cent, thus marking a spectacular win. The Congress party won 66 seats, with the vote percentage falling 0.49 per cent to 40.40 per cent.
Congress stormed to power in Telangana as the party won 64 seats in the 119-member state Assembly, defeating the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi. Revanth Reddy, now CM, led party won 64 seats whereas, KCR's BRS won 39. BJP won eight seats. Owaisi’s AIMIM won seven seats. CPI had to settle for just one seat.
One of the seven sisters, Mizoram also went to the polls with these four big states. The newest party in the state, Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) swayed 27 seats from a total of 40, defeating the BJP's ally Mizo National Front (MNF) which could win only 10 seats.
The Three Messages
If these results cry one thing in all their might, that is - the unwavering and unfettered yet underestimated influence of 'Brand Modi' on the Indian voters, especially, in North India - the region which hosts the largest voter base in the country. The Congress faces challenges in direct contests with the BJP in the Hindi heartland, highlighting the party's struggle to compete in these regions. However, it still maintains a presence in southern States.
The second and probably, a lesser-discussed one is the growing significance of women voters. This is what PM also reiterated in his post-victory address. Lastly, the outcomes highlight the importance of welfare schemes such as Ladli Behna of MP in the BJP's voter mobilization strategy. Still, the defeat in Telangana serves as a cautionary note that such schemes alone may not secure electoral success.
The Battle Of All Battles- 2024
These five states set up the stage for the next general election which will take place in 2024. Whereas, the saffron camp is elated and hoping for a 'Hat Trick' - as put by PM Modi in his post-result speech - outcomes also point out some gaps in BJP's strategy. The party's lacklustre performance in southern states, including Telangana and Karnataka, along with the coming of more than 25 opposition parties under the INDIA bloc can pose a challenge for the Modi-Shah duo.
The Opposition, dusted in the recent polls, might look forward to putting up a joint fight with a 'workable' seat-sharing arrangement in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Some points to ponder for Opposition might include replacing a negative campaign against the Modi government with an original 'positive' poll campaign for the country.