Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party's dominance in national politics has been continuing since the Lok Sabha elections 2014. But, how long the dream run of the saffron party continues is a question that remains in the mind of the BJP's rivals. The Axis My India chief and prominent pollster, Pradeep Gupta, who recently created headlines by making exact exit polls on the Tamil Nadu elections, in which a new entrant, Vijay's TVK emerged victorious, predicted the BJP's electoral fate.
How Long Is The BJP's Dominance Likely To Continue?
BJP's current phase of political dominance, which began in 2014, is likely to last at least 20 years, the pollster said, adding that the ruling party's position would remain secure as long as its governance performance does not weaken significantly.
Drawing a parallel with the long period of dominance once enjoyed by the Congress, Gupta suggested that Indian politics was witnessing another cycle of one-party predominance.
"The BJP's organisational structure, especially, I don't mean it in any personal way, but full credit goes to one person, that is (Home Minister) Amit Shah, without him it would not have happened. After the 2021 defeat (in West Bengal), they learned many lessons from it. Having workers present on the ground is very important," he explained.
What Worked In Bengal
Whenever BJP wins, some people always say it is due to Hindu consolidation; when they lose, they say Hindus were divided; victory and defeat are not decided on Hindu-Muslim issues, Gupta said, citing the BJP's repeat governments in other states. "Voters view good governance, good delivery; I have the statistics (to show); voters felt TMC cannot deliver," he added.
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What Gupta Said On Upcoming UP Elections
In UP, the satisfaction quotient is good, on the basis of that, there seems to be no major problems, but it is a different kind of state and things change quickly there, Gupta said, adding that people look for alternatives if the performance of the incumbent government is not good; it works that way.
Vote Share Matters In Punjab: Gupta On Upcoming Polls
Speaking on the upcoming Punjab Assembly elections 2027, the Axis My India chairman said it is mixed in the state. "Some sections of society are satisfied, but now there are four major parties visible there. Earlier, there were only three, the Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress, and the NDA, where the Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP were contesting together. However, in the recent Lok Sabha elections, they did not contest together; at different times, they did."
When there are four parties in an election, like earlier in Uttar Pradesh, then winning becomes about vote share, Gupta highlighted. "Even with 26 per cent vote share, the Samajwadi Party formed a full majority government. Similarly, with 29 per cent vote share, Mayawati was able to form a government. So if this is the case, even if one-third of the population, or 40 per cent of people, are satisfied, or even 33 per cent are satisfied, if the votes get split, then the one with 25 per cent vote share can still win," he explaine.
(With PTI Inputs)