India is set to receive an early yet below-normal monsoon rainfall this year. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country will receive 92 per cent of the normal rainfall this season.

However, below-normal rains do not mean any reduction in the number of extreme rainfall events and therefore do not mean a reduced threat of floods, cloudbursts, etc.

During the southwest monsoon between June and September, India witnesses intra-seasonal and regional rainfall variations. The below-normal rainfall forecast does not indicate how many extreme rainfall events will take place this coming season.

It is these events that trigger large-scale disasters from mountains to terrains and valleys. According to a report by The Indian Express, such events have largely increased in the past decade or two.

What does extreme rainfall event means?

As per the weather department classification, if in 24 hours, a certain region receives rainfall above 21 cm, it is called extreme rainfall. Of all rainfall events recorded in India, these typically account for less than 0.1 per cent.

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There rise is therefore detrimental and can lead to a natural catastrophe. The concern regarding this is rising as the number of extreme rainfall events has significantly increased since 2008.

The report citing IMD’s Annual Monsoon Reports suggests that in 2008, extreme rainfall was recorded 64 times. This rose thereafter, reaching 113 in 2017. Post-2017, the number has remained over 100.

After a decrease in 2021 to 111 from 144 in 2020, extreme rainfall events increased sharply to 132 in 2022, 159 in 2023, and 181 in 2024.

Last year, the number was relatively lower at 160. But this is much higher than the 2008 monsoon. The 2025 monsoon brought major flash floods in Uttarakhand's Dharali, apart from several other minor incidents of cloudbursts, landslides and others.

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Over 70 people were presumed dead within the first nine days till August 14, 2025. Around 40-50 houses were swept away by periodic waves of boulders and mud. Before that, in 2024, India suffered a huge natural calamity during the monsoon in Kerala, where a landslide hit Wayanad.

As India has grown resilient to deal with rainfall deficiencies, excessive rainfall has become a matter of concern for policymakers.