Jagran Bureau, New Delhi: Monsoon winds have pushed back the dry winds coming from the west. Meanwhile, due to the influence of a low pressure area around Madhya Pradesh, rain has intensified again in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and large parts of central India. Therefore, the necessary conditions for the monsoon's departure have not yet fully developed.
Another weather system is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal around September 20, which could sustain monsoon activity further. This could push the monsoon withdrawal this time back to September 17. Last year, the withdrawal process began three days earlier than normal.
Rainfall Is 15 Per Cent Less Than Normal
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), overall rainfall in the country is currently about 15 per cent below normal, but in many states the deficit is as high as 40 to 45 per cent. Consequently, September's rainfall has become crucial for agriculture. Last year, the monsoon began retreating from western Rajasthan on September 14.
ALSO READ: MP Weather: Heavy Rain Alert In 14 Districts, Storms Likely In Several Areas | Forecast
Such conditions have not yet developed this time. Based on current indications, the monsoon is unlikely to return for the next ten days or so. The next few days are crucial for the activation of the monsoon.
According to the IMD, the next few days will be crucial for monsoon activity in North India. Light to moderate rain is expected in the Terai region and surrounding areas, from Himachal Pradesh to Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.
There will be a risk of heavy rain at some places in Uttarakhand. However, rainfall will not be uniform across the region and may be fragmented in many areas.
Dry Weather Likely In Punjab, Haryana
The weather in Delhi-NCR is unlikely to remain completely dry over the next few days. Depending on local conditions and the increased activity of monsoon winds, some areas may receive rainfall. Dry weather is expected in western parts of Punjab and Haryana.
Monsoon activity in North India will become clearer next week due to the direction of winds and moisture conditions.
ALSO READ: Jharkhand Weather: Storm, Heavy Rain Alert In Ranchi, 13 Other Districts Today; IMD Forecast
Rain Likely In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan And Gujarat
Rainfall activity is currently most prevalent in western and central India. Heavy rain is expected at many locations in Rajasthan and eastern Gujarat, along with much of Madhya Pradesh. Rain Showers have returned to Gujarat after a three-week drought. However, rainfall deficits remain a concern in Saurashtra and Kutch.
According to the Meteorological Department, the withdrawal of the monsoon is not determined simply by a cessation of rainfall. Signals such as a sustained decrease in rainfall activity, along with a cyclone in the lower atmosphere and a substantial decrease in humidity, are necessary for the withdrawal to occur. Rain and humidity are currently prevailing in many parts of the country.