Mumbai Weather:  The typical strong rains that Mumbai has been experiencing since last month, are unlikely to occur during the next seven to 10 days. Light rains with sporadic, brief, or moderate spells are forecasted during this period. Compared to the wettest month of July, August typically receives 585.8 mm of rainfall each month.

With 1703.7mm of rain, compared to the usual 840.7mm, July 2024 was the second-highest rainfall month ever recorded. It seems doubtful that August will equal July's 173 mm of rainfall so far.

Under certain weather circumstances, Mumbai and the Konkan Coast receive a lot of rainfall. The monsoon stream from the Arabian Sea along the Western Ghats accelerates with every monsoon system, whether it be a low-pressure system or a depression, approaching the Bay of Bengal.

Over the following ten days, no such system is expected. Along the Konkan Coast, any cyclonic circulation across Gujarat, North Madhya Maharashtra, and West Madhya Pradesh intensifies the monsoon surge. A scenario like that is not likely to occur in the first part of August.

The offshore trough extending from South Gujarat to Kerala continues to be the most prominent and semi-permanent feature. This feature will be inactive for about the next ten days. In such a scenario, Mumbai is unlikely to have significant rainfall till the third week of August.

ALSO READ: Maharashtra Rains: Flood-Like Situation In Nashik As Godavari River Crosses Danger Mark, Alert Sounded

No Typical Monsoon Outburst Till Aug 20

The monsoon trough will continue to be quite far away, across the northern plains. The easternmost point will remain close to the foothills. Very little trough oscillation is predicted.

An increase in weather activity along the Konkan Coast is not likely to occur under these conditions. The Arabian Sea's westerly flow will continue to run linearly and unaffected. In a few days, the orographic action of the Ghats may cause small-scale local-level waves.

There may be one or two periods of moderate rains between August 10 and August 12, but they won't cause any major problems. Over the Bay of Bengal, a new monsoon system is crucial to break up the routine.

This indicator does not appear until the third week of August. Mumbai is unlikely to have a typical monsoon outburst until August 20, 2024.