From Anti-Hasina Uprising To Islamist Alliance: How NCP-Jamaat Tie-Up Redraws Dhaka’s Power Map Ahead Of 2026 Polls

Bangladesh’s political landscape has entered a new and uncertain phase ahead of the February 2026 general elections, with the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) announcing an alliance with Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami. The tie-up has triggered sharp debate within political circles and raised concerns among minorities and liberal groups, even as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) accelerates its own poll preparations under returning leader Tarique Rahman.

Student Movement Meets Islamist Politics

The NCP, formed in March by leaders of the July 2024 student uprising that toppled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, had positioned itself as a centrist and democratic alternative in post-Hasina Bangladesh. However, Jamaat-e-Islami on Sunday confirmed a seat-sharing agreement with the party following prolonged negotiations.

Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman said the alliance had expanded, with the Liberal Democratic Party also joining the Islamist-led bloc. “We were eight parties in the alliance. Now two new political parties have joined us,” he told reporters.

The agreement has exposed deep fissures within the NCP. At least 30 members had earlier written to party chief Nahid Islam opposing the alliance, warning that Jamaat’s ideological positions contradicted the party’s stated commitment to democratic and egalitarian politics. The dissent soon translated into exits, with aspiring candidates Tasnim Jara and Tasnuva Jabin quitting the party.

Senior NCP figure Samantha Sharmin cautioned on social media that the party would pay a “high price” for aligning with Islamist forces. The NCP has so far not issued an official statement addressing the internal backlash.

Jamaat’s Calculated Comeback

For Jamaat-e-Islami, the February 12, 2026 vote represents its best chance in decades to gain influence at the national level. Islamist groups that were marginalised during Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule have regrouped since her removal, capitalising on political instability and voter fatigue.

The resurgence has sparked anxiety among religious minorities, including Hindus and Sufi Muslims, who together account for less than 10 per cent of Bangladesh’s population. Hardline Islamist voices have recently called for restrictions on cultural activities such as music festivals, theatre performances, women’s football matches and traditional celebrations.

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BNP Gains Momentum With Tarique Rahman’s Return

While the NCP-Jamaat alliance struggles with internal contradictions, the BNP appears energised. The return of acting chairman Tarique Rahman to Dhaka after more than 17 years in exile has reshaped the opposition’s campaign narrative. His arrival alongside his daughter, Zaima Rahman, has added a new generational dimension to the party.

Zaima Rahman, a London-trained barrister and granddaughter of former prime minister Khaleda Zia and late president Ziaur Rahman, has begun appearing at BNP events and international forums. Though she has not declared electoral ambitions, her increasing public presence is being closely watched.

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With the Awami League barred from contesting the election, political observers say the BNP remains the frontrunner. Yet, the emergence of a student-Islamist alliance and shifting power centres suggest Bangladesh’s road to the 2026 polls will be turbulent, contested and unpredictable.