- By Shivangi Sharma
- Sun, 12 Oct 2025 02:24 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
The Nobel Institute has launched an internal review after a surge of betting activity on Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s chances of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize appeared hours before the official announcement. The trend has raised fears of an imagined information breach or spying.
The Nobel Peace Prize was formally unveiled at 10 am local time on Friday. The wagers on Machado, however, started surging late Thursday, as evidenced by information from Polymarket, a top online prediction platform. Her odds soared to over 73 per cent shortly after midnight, suggesting some traders may have had inside knowledge of the committee’s decision.
For a brief period, odds shifted toward YuliaNavalnaya, widow of slain Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, before swinging back decisively in Machado’s favour after 3 am local time, well before the official reveal. The unusual betting behaviour immediately triggered speculation of an intelligence breach.
‘Highly Likely It’s Espionage’
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, told Norway’s TV2 network that it was “highly likely it’s espionage.” He confirmed that the institute would investigate the irregular betting activity and strengthen its internal safeguards.
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“Espionage could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information. That is not likely,” Harpviken clarified. “It’s too certain to say for sure, but it’s no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage.” He added that the institution had been a target of both state and non-state actors for decades, citing political and economic motives behind such attempts.
Committee Denies Internal Leak
Despite these concerns, Nobel Committee chairman Jorgen WatneFrydnes dismissed the idea of a deliberate internal breach. “I don’t think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can’t imagine that’s the case,” he told Norway’s NTB news agency. The committee emphasised that while investigations are ongoing, no evidence yet points to an internal leak.
Machado’s Win And Global Context
Machado, who was barred from contesting Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election, won the Nobel Peace Prize “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and her struggle for a peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”