US-Iran War: The intense US-Israel war with Iran entered its 14th day amid rising fuel concerns, which affected almost every country, including India. Since the United States is far away from Iran (11,500 to 11,700 kilometres), America is using territories of its allies, like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and other Gulf countries to launch airstrikes against Iran. The NATO nations in Europe and other allies also extended their support to the US. It was earlier expected that the war would end with the killing of Tehran's top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but it has now sparked fear of a prolonged war. The concern gets strengthened with a fresh threat by Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who said the country would continue to use the strategic Strait of Hormuz as leverage during the conflict.
Tensions have been raging in the Gulf since joint US-Israeli military operations against Iran were launched on February 28, creating an unprecedented fuel crisis in several countries.
Now, the question arises, how long will the US' allies in the Gulf region and Europe support the war, as with every passing day, the fuel trade situation is growing grimmer? Certainly, the support for the US is not everlasting, and it would depend on several political and economic factors.
Here Are Five Key Factors:
1. Duration Of The War: If the US-Iran conflict remains short and limited, most allies may remain with the United States, but if the war goes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict way, many countries may withdraw their support due to their economic conditions, internal pressure and limited resources. If war continues for a long time, inflation and unemployment may rise in the Gulf countries as their economy largely depends on fuel trade, which is facing disruption.
ALSO READ: How Modified Cars And Bikes Are Becoming Headache For Dubai Amid Iranian Attacks?
2. Oil Prices: Iran threatened that its continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz may increase oil prices to USD 200 a barrel. If this happens, US allies will put pressure to stop the war. The economies of the Middle East and Asia are dependent on oil, so if prices continue to rise, the voice for ending the war will get stronger. Hence, US partners may withdraw their support.
3. Domestic Politics: People in the Gulf countries understand that it was not their war, and they have been dragged by the US and Israel. A prolonged war may trigger anger among people in the allied nations. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are already facing Iranian attacks. Civilians' injuries, economic losses, and damage to infrastructure due to war may affect domestic politics, and this could lead to a problematic situation for the government.
4. Regional Security Risks: Iran has used its full force to expand the war in an attempt to put pressure on the US. Iran has targeted several countries which have US bases. There is a fear that it may attack nations in South Asian countries and European nations, which will affect the regional stability. The US allies would never support the expansion of the war.
5. No Clarity On Strategic Goals: Since February 28, there has been no clarity on the objective of the war. US President Donald Trump's flip-flop statements added more confusion. Earlier allies were told that the US wants the complete elimination of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, later, said it wishes to change the regime, and now it is silent on the issue.