Pakistan Left Counting Its Drops, Faces 'Acute Risk' Of Water Scarcity After India Closes Tap | Here's What Report Reveals

Pakistan faces an “acute risk” of water scarcity following India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) earlier this year, according to a new report by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). The development, the report says, could have serious consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture and food security.

The treaty, signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, had survived three wars between India and Pakistan and was long considered a cornerstone of bilateral cooperation. However, the agreement was suspended by India in April 2025, following the Pahalgam terror attack, which New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-backed groups.

Pakistan Faces Water Shock After Suspension

The IEP’s Ecological Threat Report 2025 notes that the suspension allows India to control the westward flow of the Indus and its tributaries into Pakistan. The report warns that even minor interruptions in river flow could have devastating consequences for Pakistan, whose agriculture depends almost entirely on the Indus basin.

“Even small disruptions at critical moments could hurt Pakistani agriculture since Pakistan lacks sufficient storage to buffer variations. Pakistan’s own dam capacity can hold only about 30 days of Indus flow; any prolonged cut would be disastrous if not managed,” the report said.

Nearly 80 per cent of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture depends on the Indus system. The report adds that any interruption in flow “directly threatens Pakistan’s food security and national stability.”

India’s Reservoir Operations Spark Tensions

In May, India conducted “reservoir flushing” operations at the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River without prior notification to Pakistan, a move that sparked fresh tensions. The process, used to clear silt by draining reservoirs, had previously been restricted under the treaty because of potential downstream impacts.

Reports from Pakistan’s Punjab region indicated that sections of the Chenab River temporarily ran dry, followed by sediment-laden torrents once the dam gates were reopened.

The IEP report also highlights how the treaty’s suspension has altered regional geopolitics. China has accelerated construction of the Mohmand Dam in Pakistan, framing it as support to Islamabad amid India’s water actions. The report adds that Beijing views the issue through the lens of its own water disputes with India over the Brahmaputra River.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s growing defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia — cemented by a mutual defence treaty signed in September, could further complicate regional dynamics. The IEP notes that Riyadh “would most likely support Pakistan in any conflict with India,” given the new security pact.

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The Indus Waters Treaty divided the basin’s six rivers, giving India control over the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, and Pakistan over the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India’s decision to suspend it marked a historic shift from cooperation to confrontation.

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In June, Home Minister Amit Shah confirmed that the treaty would remain suspended “permanently” until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjures cross-border terrorism.” Thus, Pakistan’s limited water storage and heavy reliance on the Indus system, even short-term disruptions, could trigger widespread crop failures, food inflation, and migration pressures — deepening an already fragile situation.