• Source:JND
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The 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the deadliest in the region since the Yom Kippur War of 1973, ended with a US-brokered ceasefire. But as all three principal players, Israel, Iran, and the United States, claim victory, the question remains: who truly gained what?

Israel’s Operation Rising Lion was a high-intensity military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure. The Israeli Air Force, bolstered by US intelligence and stealth assets, successfully degraded Iran’s facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, neutralized over 70 air-defense systems, and destroyed hundreds of missile launchers.

Israel also claimed a series of intelligence victories, with targeted assassinations of 11 nuclear scientists and several top IRGC commanders. These hits dealt a temporary but symbolic blow to Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity. The Israeli establishment was buoyed by the domestic and political impact, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the war as a “historic victory” that removed an existential threat, helping consolidate his leadership at home.

Iran: Surviving Storm And Reasserting Sovereignty

Despite heavy losses, Iran's regime remained intact, and that survival became a rallying point. Tehran called the ceasefire a “great victory,” celebrating its retaliatory missile launches and the ability to resist US-Israeli military pressure.

Domestically, Iran experienced an unusual moment of unity, moderates, clerics, and hardliners stood together, with parliament even voting to curb cooperation with the IAEA, a clear signal of defiance. Regionally, Iran retained diplomatic support from allies like Syria and Hezbollah, although its proxy strength was weakened.

The attacks pushed Tehran to consider strategic disengagement from international nuclear oversight, which could accelerate clandestine nuclear development, a gain in terms of long-term autonomy.

United States: Military Influence, Diplomatic Repercussions

The US played a crucial supporting role, with B-2 stealth bombers striking deeply buried Iranian sites. The Pentagon described the damage as “extremely severe,” and President Donald Trump took a personal victory lap, declaring Iran’s nuclear program “obliterated.”

However, intelligence assessments suggested the setbacks may only delay Iran’s capabilities by a few months, with significant uranium reserves still intact. The leaked DIA report challenging Trump’s optimism sparked political controversy, but the ceasefire agreement enhanced Trump’s public image as a wartime negotiator.

US allies warned that without diplomatic resolution, military gains could unravel. The lack of congressional briefings and confusion about the extent of Iranian damage raised concerns about strategic planning.

Who Gained What? 

Israel scored a tactical win by striking Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, earning Prime Minister Netanyahu a political boost. Yet, the impact is likely temporary, Tehran’s nuclear threat remains.

Iran suffered major infrastructure and military losses but claimed a symbolic victory by surviving and rallying national unity. The war strengthened its domestic standing and may push it further from international oversight.

The US, through airstrikes, showcased its military strength and bolstered Trump’s image. Questions remain about the effectiveness of the strikes and the absence of a long-term diplomatic solution.

What’s Next?

While the ceasefire opens the door for potential diplomatic talks between Iran, the US, and Israel, deep mistrust remains. The risk of renewed violence is high, especially if Iran-backed groups retaliate. The war’s humanitarian toll, hundreds of civilian deaths, widespread destruction, and regional instability, remains a lasting consequence.

There is no clear winner in the Israel-Iran war. While each side emerged with certain gains, they also suffered significant losses, militarily, politically, or diplomatically, making the outcome far from decisive.

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