• Source:JND

Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: The NDA on Sunday announced the seat-sharing arrangement for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JDU) set to contest an equal number of seats, 101 each, out of the total 243. With both parties as equal partners this time, the change clear signal that the BJP’s vote share has been rising steadily, while the JDU’s has dropped sharply over the past four elections.

However, both parties have reduced their seats, JDU from 115 and BJP from 110, compared to the past four elections. The factor affecting the seat-sharing arrangement is Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), which will contest 29 seats in the upcoming elections.

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What Does The Seat-Sharing Say About JDU’s Shrinking Role In Bihar?

Nitish Kumar’s Leadership and JDU Performance: Nitish Kumar has been the Chief Minister of Bihar for nearly 20 years, but his popularity has not fully translated into strong election results for his party, Janata Dal United (JDU). Here’s the comparison of how the JDU’s strength has weakened over the decades.

- In 2010, when the JDU was a much senior partner, it contested 141 seats and won 115, with an 82 per cent strike rate, whereas the BJP contested 102 seats and won 91, with an 89 per cent strike rate.

- In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the JDU contested 115 seats but won only 43, while the BJP contested 110 seats and won 74. This meant a strike rate of just 38 per cent for the JDU, compared to 68 per cent for the BJP, a clear sign of the JDU’s shrinking influence within the alliance.

The 2015 Assembly Election remains an exception as the JDU and BJP were not allies and fought against each other. In the 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections, Nitish Kumar broke away from the BJP and allied with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress in the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance).

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- The JDU won 71 out of 101 seats contested, at a strike rate of about 70 per cent.

- The BJP won only about 34 per cent of the total seats contested, resulting in a significant loss.

- The Mahagathbandhan won 178 out of 243 seats, defeating the BJP-led NDA coalition.

 This time, the seat-sharing arrangement reflects how the balance has shifted within the NDA, with the JDU no longer in the dominant position it once held. While Nitish Kumar remains the face of the alliance in Bihar, there is growing speculation that he may step aside, possibly for a young BJP leader. However, all of this depends on whether NDA wins in 2025.