- By Aditya Pratap Singh
- Tue, 07 Jan 2025 05:20 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
GDP Growth Prediction FY 2024-25: In real terms, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.4 per cent in the financial year 2024-25 compared to 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. 20 basis points lower than the RBI estimate. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Tuesday released the first advance estimate of annual gross domestic product (GDP) for the financial year 2024-25.
Nominal GDP growth is expected to reach 9.7 per cent in 2024-25 compared to 9.6 per cent in 2023-24.
Real gross value added (GVA) is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2024-25 compared to a growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2023-24. Nominal GVA shows a growth rate of 9.3 per cent in 2024-25 as against 8.5 per cent in 2023-24.
The real GVA of agriculture and allied sectors is projected to grow by 3.8 per cent during 2024-25, as against a growth of 1.4 per cent during 2023-24. Real GDP is projected to reach Rs 184.88 lakh crore in FY2025, as against its provisional estimate of Rs 173.82 lakh crore in the previous fiscal.
The Indian economy grew 5.4 per cent in real terms in the July-September quarter of the current fiscal. The quarterly growth was well below the RBI's estimate of 7 per cent. India's GDP also grew at a slower pace than the central bank estimated in the April-June quarter.
As persistent inflation erodes the purchasing power of the urban poor, urban consumption has slowed.
For India, Q2 2024-25 GDP data and headline consumer price inflation present a growth slowdown-high inflation conundrum. In particular, food prices remain a problem for policymakers in India, who want to lift retail inflation to 4 per cent on a sustainable basis. The RBI has kept the repo rate high at 6.5 per cent to rein in inflation.
High-frequency indicators for the third quarter (October-December) of 2024-25 indicate that the Indian economy has recovered from the slowdown seen in September, driven by strong festive activity and a sustained surge in rural demand, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP forecast for 2024-25 to 6.4 per cent from 7.0 per cent earlier. The downgrade by the rating agency comes after the Reserve Bank lowered the growth forecast to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent in its latest monetary policy.
The Economic Survey tabled in Parliament earlier this year acknowledged that market expectations were high and "conservatively" estimated India's real GDP growth at 6.5-7 per cent for 2024-25. Real GDP growth is the reported economic growth adjusted for inflation.
India's GDP grew by an impressive 8.2 per cent in FY 2023-24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy is expected to grow by 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22.
(With Inputs From PTI)
