Delhi Weather: When Will Monsoon Reach National Capital? Expert Explains Delay, Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall

Sanjeev Gupta, New Delhi: The weather has become quite a puzzle lately. Winters are shrinking, while summers seem to expand constantly. The monsoon is equally unpredictable; sometimes it arrives late, and when it finally does, the rainfall is inadequate. We are witnessing stark extremes where records are broken by torrential rain in one region, while drought-like conditions prevail in another.

This year is no different, with uncertainty looming over the arrival of the monsoon and total rainfall. Seeking clarity on these shifting patterns, Dainik Jagran spoke with Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather. Here is what he had to say:

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Why Is The Monsoon Delayed And When Will It Reach Delhi?

For the monsoon to advance, a low-pressure system must form in the Bay of Bengal, which did not form in the early stages of this season. Additionally, the Somalia Jet Stream winds blowing in from the Indian Ocean are currently weak, further stalling the monsoon's progress.

Palawat said that a system is expected to become active in the Bay of Bengal around June 28 or 29. Because of the sluggish pace, it is highly unlikely that the monsoon will arrive in Delhi before the first week of July.

Can Monsoon Still Catch Up To Normal Levels?

It is highly unlikely. This year's El Niño is one of the strongest ever. Its effects will be felt more intensely as the monsoon progresses, likely leading to reduced rainfall in July, August, and September.

While we can still expect occasional strong spells of rain, bringing July and August close to near-normal levels, it will not be enough to compensate for the June deficit. Overall, this year's monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal.

What's Behind This Climate Shift?

This is happening not just in Delhi, but all over the world. In Delhi, winters are shrinking while the monsoons are becoming increasingly erratic. Last year, in 2025, pre-monsoon activity was strong, but it completely vanished this year.

A major reason for this is the change in the pattern of Western Disturbances. The systems that used to arrive in October and November are now delaying until December and January, extending into the summer months of April and May.

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Will Pre-Monsoon Bring Relief?

Currently, Delhi is experiencing dry northwesterly winds. Therefore, the intermittent pre-monsoon showers have not raised humidity levels to the high percentages typically recorded in mid-June.

This wind pattern is expected to shift around June 28-29, when easterly winds will begin to blow, causing a significant increase in humidity. By the end of June, temperatures are likely to drop to between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius, offering some relief from the heat. However, the heat index or 'feels-like' temperature will remain high due to the increased humidity.

How Does Skymet Weather Predict Sudden Heavy Rainfall?

Sudden heavy rainfall occurs when winds from three directions, the north, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, collide. Palawat said that Skymet's monitoring systems can detect these developing weather setups 24 to 48 hours in advance, allowing us to issue immediate alerts to local authorities.

To mitigate the risk of disaster, the administration must remain prepared and execute emergency protocols as soon as these warnings are issued.

(With Inputs From Jagran.com)