- By Chetna Shree
- Sat, 16 May 2026 05:07 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
- Tropical Pacific warming rapidly, indicating strong El Niño.
- IMD warns of increased drought risk for India's monsoon.
- Global impact expected: heatwaves, floods, food security concerns.
Super El Niño 2026: Meteorologists across the globe are tracking a developing El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is expected to strengthen significantly within the next few months. Preliminary reports indicate that it could become one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded.
This development has raised concerns about severe heatwaves and widespread climate disruptions around the world. In response, monitoring efforts have been intensified following signs that the system is warming much sooner and more rapidly than expected.
El Niño Likely To Become Stronger By The End Of 2026
According to a report by the BBC, El Niño conditions are expected to emerge soon and strengthen significantly by the end of 2026.
At present, the situation remains uncertain. However, weather forecasting centres, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, are closely monitoring conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Pacific Ocean Heating Faster Than Expected
According to the NOAA, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal this May. Forecasters warn that this warming trend is likely to persist throughout the monsoon season.
The probability of El Niño's development has increased from 61 per cent last month to 82 per cent.
Risk Of Severe Heatwaves, Drought In India
Mrityunjay Mahapatra, Chief of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), stated that developing El Niño will have a direct impact on the upcoming monsoon, further increasing the risk of drought across the country.
He further stated that current temperatures in the tropical Pacific have already reached levels considered to be an early sign of the onset of El Niño.
Signs Of A Super El Niño
According to a report by The Times of India, scientists monitor El Niño intensity through the Niño 3.4 index, a key metric that monitors changes in sea surface temperature in the central Pacific Ocean against historical averages.
An El Niño event is classified as 'strong' or 'super ' when these temperatures rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal. Current forecasts indicate that the temperature could rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius later this year. Some forecasts even indicate a strong possibility of the temperature rising by 2.5 degrees Celsius.
If this occurs, it would be one of the most powerful El Niño events ever recorded.
Impact Of A Strong El Niño
According to the report, the impact of strong El Niño extends far beyond the Pacific Ocean.
- It can affect weather patterns and drive up average temperatures across the world.
- In South America, the phenomenon is expected to bring heavy rainfall and severe flooding, while other regions may face droughts.
- This places the agricultural sector on the front lines, reducing crop yields in drought-prone zones and causing damage to agricultural land in flooded areas.
- Climate scientists and experts have forecast that El Niño could trigger serious socioeconomic challenges.
- El Niño threatens other key sectors, including transportation networks, water availability, and global food security.
- As agriculatiral production would decline in many regions, food prices may rise, affecting vulnerable populations.
(With Inputs From Jagran.com)