US Midterm Elections 2026: Georgia To Ohio, Key Governor Races That Could Reshape The Political Map

The November 3 US midterm elections will not only decide the balance of power in Congress but also who runs 36 state governments. Democrats are hoping to win governorships in traditionally Republican states, while President Donald Trump is campaigning for Republican candidates in a bid to help his party hold on to power.

Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) October 23 forecast gives Democrats the advantage in 22 of the 36 governor races. Georgia and Nevada are classified as toss-ups, while Ohio, Iowa and Michigan are among the states where Democrats are favoured. The forecasts are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. 

Governors shape state policies on healthcare, education, immigration and public safety. The results could also influence the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

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Georgia: Democrats Aim To End A Long Losing Streak

Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is challenging Republican Rick Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive who spent nearly USD 100 million of his own money to win the Republican nomination.

DDHQ currently classifies Georgia as a toss-up, with Bottoms holding a 57 per cent chance of victory. Democrats have not won the governor’s office in the state since 1998. If elected, Bottoms would become Georgia’s first female governor and its first Black governor. 

Trump is campaigning in Georgia, where Republicans are trying to retain support in a closely contested state. Former President Barack Obama is also expected to campaign with Bottoms and Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff next week. 

Ohio: Trump Backs Vivek Ramaswamy

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is facing Democrat Amy Acton in Ohio, where Trump campaigned for Ramaswamy at a rally in Youngstown on October 12.

Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign with Acton and Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown in Cleveland on October 24. DDHQ gives Acton a 62 per cent chance of winning. A Democratic victory would be the party’s first win in an Ohio governor’s race since 2006. 

Nevada: A Close Contest Over Cost Of Living

Republican Governor Joe Lombardo is seeking re-election against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. DDHQ gives Democrats a 51 per cent chance of winning, placing Nevada among the closest contests.

Ford has made the cost of living a central campaign issue and criticised Lombardo over his relationship with Trump. The expansion of data centres has also become a point of debate.

Iowa: Can Democrats Win Back The Governor’s Office?

Democrat Rob Sand, Iowa’s state auditor and the only Democrat holding statewide office there, is challenging Republican Zach Lahn.

Iowa has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006, but DDHQ gives Sand a 72 per cent chance of winning. The race offers Democrats an opportunity to break a two-decade losing streak in the state.

Michigan: A Potential First For Women

Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is running against Republican Representative John James to succeed term-limited Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

DDHQ gives Benson a 77 per cent chance of victory. Her running mate, state Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks, could join her in forming Michigan’s first successful all-female gubernatorial ticket. Republicans last won the state’s governorship in 2014. 

Texas: Republicans Still Have The Edge

Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking another term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. DDHQ gives Abbott a 72 per cent chance of victory, although the race is rated as leaning Republican rather than safe for the party. Democrats are hoping to make the contest more competitive in a state that has long favoured Republicans. 

New York And California: Democrats Favoured

In New York, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul is seeking re-election against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. DDHQ gives Hochul a 91 per cent chance of winning. Their October 13 debate focused on immigration, Trump and the cost of living. 

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California also appears firmly Democratic. Xavier Becerra is challenging Republican Steve Hilton for the seat being vacated by Governor Gavin Newsom. DDHQ gives Becerra a 97 per cent chance of victory. If elected, he would become California’s first Latino governor since the 19th century.

Why The Races Matter

For Trump, the elections are an opportunity to help Republicans retain key state offices. For Democrats, they offer a chance to turn voter concerns about the economy and the administration’s policies into electoral gains.

The results could shape state-level decisions on major issues and influence the political landscape before 2028. While DDHQ’s forecasts favour Democrats in most of the highlighted contests, the final results will depend on how voters cast their ballots on November 3.

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