Monsoon 2026: Southwest Monsoon To Hit Kerala On May 26, IMD Forecasts Early Arrival

The Indian Meteorological Department predicted that the Southwest monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala on May 26. Usually, the southern state experiences the onset of the monsoon on June 1, marking the start of the southwest monsoon season.

Previously, on Tuesday, the weather department forecast that the climatic conditions are getting favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week.

The Southwest monsoon typically hits the Andaman and Nicobar around May 20, and it subsequently advances further west toward mainland India. The weather agency said that India might experience below-normal rainfall this year during the monsoon season, citing the emergence of the El Niño conditions as a possible cause.

As per IMD, India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall, while the long-period average (1971-2020) of seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm.

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Why Does Kerala Announce Monsoon Arrival?

Kerala is always the first Indian state to receive the southwest monsoon. It is one of the most closely witnessed weather events every year.

The arrival of monsoon in God's own country, marks the formal end of the brutal pre-summer season and indicates the gradual northward march of rain across the subcontinent, a progression that typically covers all of India by mid-July.

The IMD has been making official forecasts for Kerala's monsoon onset date every year since 2005, using a specially developed statistical model that analyses six key atmospheric signals, including wind patterns over the Indian and Pacific oceans, temperature trends in northwest India, and radiation levels over the South China Sea.

Since the last 21 years, the model's predictions have been accurate in all but one year, that is 2015.

Singficant Weather Change

Recent years further underscore the model's reliability. In 2025, the monsoon entered Kerala on May 24, three days ahead of the IMD's forecast of May 27, well within the four-day error margin.In the similar way, in 2024, the monsoon made the onset on May 30 against a forecast of May 31.

In 2022, it came in on May 29 against a prediction of May 27. If this year's forecast holds, the monsoon's early arrival would also be consistent with a broader trend of earlier-than-normal onsets observed in recent years, as in 2022, 2024, and 2025.

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For a region, where agriculture, water supply, and everyday life are deeply tied to the monsoon's rhythm, an early and well-distributed season would be welcome news indeed.