- By Ajeet Kumar
- Fri, 16 Jan 2026 01:31 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
Bangladesh, long a key ally of India, appears to be slipping from New Delhi's influence following the rise of pro-Pakistan leader Muhammad Yunus to power in August 2024. Since then, bilateral relations have hit a new low, with Hindus facing daily persecution and escalating diplomatic tensions. This has adversely impacted bilateral trade, as both sides have withdrawn regular measures to facilitate ease of doing business.
A similar situation now looms in Iran amid anti-establishment protests. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled his intent to overthrow the Ayatollah Khamenei regime and install a puppet leader. If this occurs, the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who has called for massive protests in Tehran, stands a strong chance of becoming the next leader, though Trump's statements have not explicitly endorsed this probability.
What would Reza Pahlavi's return mean for India?
Pahlavi’s potential ascent to power in Tehran could severely damage New Delhi-Tehran ties. India has long maintained a balanced approach toward Iran, and Tehran has reciprocated by countering Pakistan's anti-India agenda on global platforms.
Historically, the Pahlavi royal family, under his father, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (the last Shah of Iran, ruling from 1941 to 1979), maintained strong military, economic, and diplomatic ties with Pakistan, viewing it as a vital buffer state for Iranian security and regional influence.
Although Reza Pahlavi has not explicitly stated intentions to follow his father's pro-Pakistan path, the risk of a tilt toward Islamabad remains high.
After Bangladesh, why can't India risk losing Iran too?
Pakistan could push its anti-Kashmir agenda at global forums more aggressively. Under the Shah, Iran strongly supported Pakistan's position on Kashmir, openly accusing India of being the aggressor on international platforms.
This contrasted sharply with the post-1979 Islamic Republic's generally neutral stance (occasionally critical of India on human rights). In the 1990s, when Pakistan attempted to corner India at the United Nations and push for massive sanctions on New Delhi, it was Tehran that came to India's rescue.
India's major investments in Iran are at stake
With Pakistan consistently blocking India from overland access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, Iran has emerged as New Delhi's most reliable land bridge for westward connectivity. At the heart of this strategy is Iran's Chabahar Port, developed with significant Indian investment and designed to provide direct access to Iran's southeastern coast.
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From there, it links India to Afghanistan and onward to landlocked Central Asian countries (such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan) via integrated road and rail networks, effectively bypassing Pakistan entirely. Any major regime change or prolonged instability in Tehran could seriously jeopardise these projects, which are already delayed due to Western sanctions on Iran.
India could lose valuable trade
According to 2024 data, India ranks as Iran's 8th-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at $1.3–1.7 billion in the past year. New Delhi has invested over $1 billion in Chabahar Port and related infrastructure, often delaying or restructuring phases to comply with US sanctions.
A boost for China’s CPEC
If Iran experiences internal weakening, due to prolonged protests, economic collapse, leadership fractures, or military overstretch, Pakistan would likely gain indirect strategic advantages in the region. This could create greater opportunities for Pakistan to expand economic and security cooperation with China via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with reduced Iranian competition or interference in the neighborhood.