- Trump skeptical of Reza Pahlavi's leadership potential in Iran.
- Pahlavi's return could harm India-Iran ties significantly.
- Concerns over Chabahar Port and Kashmir stance revival.
New Delhi: Amid massive protests in Iran and wild speculations about US President Donald Trump's intention to overthrow the Khamenei regime, the first name that popped up for the next leader is Iran's exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. As of now, thousands of news articles are being published calling Pahlavi may fit in the shoes of the current Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
However, in an interview with news agency Reuters on Thursday, Trump, who has been warning Tehran of military action, downplayed Pahlavi's chances of becoming the next leader in Iran. He, however, did not reject the claim but sounded less interested in giving Pahlavi a chance to rule Iran.
What Trump said on Pahlavi becoming next Iran ruler
Trump dubbed Pahlavi "seems very nice," but expressed uncertainty over whether he would be able to muster support within Iran to eventually take over.
The US-based Pahlavi, 65, has lived outside Iran since before his father was toppled in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and has become a prominent voice in the protests.
Trump said there is a chance Iran's clerical government could collapse. "He seems very nice, but I don't know how he'd play within his own country," Trump said. "And we really aren't up to that point yet. I don't know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me."
Trump's comments went further in questioning Pahlavi's ability to lead Iran after saying last week that he had no plans to meet with him.
What does Reza Pahlavi's return mean for India?
As per the historical facts, Pahlavi’s potential return to power in Tehran could blend the Islamic nation into the global mainstream. However, from an Indian perspective, it could severely damage New Delhi-Tehran ties.
Historically, the Pahlavi royal family under his father Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran from 1941 to 1979, maintained strong military, economic, and diplomatic ties with Pakistan, viewing it as a vital buffer state for Iranian security and regional influence.
Support for Pakistan during wars against India
The Shah openly backed Pakistan in both the 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistani wars against India. This included: providing free fuel to Islamabad. Supplying military equipment, ammunition, and spare parts.
While there is no evidence that Iranian pilots or aircraft directly engaged Indian forces in combat, i.e., no direct deployment of Iranian Air Force jets against India, Tehran provided logistical support, including allowing Pakistani aircraft to take refuge in Iranian airbases to evade Indian attacks, particularly in 1971.
Stance on Kashmir
Under the Shah, Iran strongly supported Pakistan's position on Kashmir, openly accusing India of being the aggressor on international platforms. This contrasted sharply with the post-1979 Islamic Republic's generally neutral, or occasionally critical of India on human rights, stance on the issue.
Potential risks if Reza Pahlavi Returns
1. Pahlavi is widely seen as likely to align closely with Washington if he assumes power. Recent developments under the Trump administration show strengthened US-Pakistan military ties, including with Pakistan's army leadership.
2. This could revive a US-Iran-Pakistan axis, reminiscent of the pre-1979 era, which historically disadvantaged India.
3. Potential loss of access to the strategic Chabahar Port, a vital project for bypassing Pakistan and connecting to Afghanistan or Central Asia.
4. Renewed Iranian vocal support for Pakistan's stance on Kashmir in international forums, increasing diplomatic pressure on India.
(With inputs from Reuters)